It has been a great stretch of days recently with mostly just sunshine. Unfortunately, that stretch is about to end. Rain chances are in the forecast for the majority of the next seven days, but not every day will be a total washout.
Rain first enters the forecast as we start out this morning, but only a small chance. A cold front to our north will slowly drop south during the day. A dying broken line of thunderstorms will remain mostly northeast of the region early this morning. However, a spotty shower cannot be ruled out between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m. Expect a mixture of clouds and sun for the late morning and early afternoon hours. Highs will reach the upper 70s.
As that cold front continues to slowly sag south, it will fire off a new round of thunderstorms. We will be on the edge of a belt of modest westerly jet stream winds which will create a minor amount of wind shear in the atmosphere. Depending on how much instability can manifest by late afternoon, there will be a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. The main threats would be damaging wind and large hail. There is some concern that leftover clouds from the morning showers will limit how much instability can build up. That is why the risk is considered only marginal right for any stronger storms. If it ends up mostly sunny through the day, the risk will be somewhat higher.
Expect the strongest thunderstorms to roll through in a broken line (scattered) between 5 p.m. and midnight. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the entire afternoon.
Without much in the way to push it farther south, the front will hung up across northern Kentucky by Wednesday morning. This should barely leave us on the cooler side of the front meaning clouds and highs in the middle 60s. With the front nearby, scattered showers will remain possible throughout the day. It will not rain all day, but rain will be possible throughout the day.
A disturbance aloft will give the front a kick Wednesday evening. As the front starts to lift north, it will ignite another round of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy Wednesday evening and overnight into very early Thursday morning.
The majority of the batch of rain from Wednesday night will lift northeast by sunrise on Thursday morning. With the front to our north, temperatures will rise again into the upper 70s. A wave of low pressure will slide along the front to our north and push it back to the south on Thursday evening. This will likely ignite another batch of thunderstorms for the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of those storms could be strong.
The temperature gradient across the front will have weakened by the end of this week. That means that the cool down behind the front on Friday will only be modest. Highs will still reach the upper 60s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
A stronger storm system is expected to take shape across the Plains this weekend. We should remain dry for most of the daylight hours on Saturday. However, rain will return Saturday night and likely for the Flying Pig Marathon on Sunday.