‘Media, pundits and current horse-race polls” are worthless “until about September,” but Donald Trump will beat Hillary Clinton ” and will be the next president,” Professor Helmut Norpoth assured Stuart Varney on FOX Business, Varney & Co. on Friday. The professor explained that contrary to President Obama’s former statement about the importance that “the stars were aligned,” the best predictors of an election were early primary results plus the electoral cycle. His model predicts Donald Trump will be the next president, if he wins the primary, with an 87 percent certainty.
Norpoth addressed the anxiety of the big concerns on everyone’s mind a little over a week ago when he took questions on Reddit. The most pressing question was: What are the chances that Trump will lose the nomination to Ted Cruz or in a brokered convention?
Norpoth responded,”Close to zero,” hammering in his prediction that not only does Trump have a close to zero chance of losing the presidency if nominated — there’s a close to zero chance of Trump losing the nomination.
Question: What are the chances that Trump will lose the nomination to Ted Cruz or in a brokered convention?
Answer: Close to zero. You probably have to go back to 1912 to see a party deny the nomination to someone who has done as well in primaries.
Furthermore, neither Hillary, nor the media, nor President Obama will be able to stop Donald Trump once he wins the primary nomination and no other GOP candidate comes close, explained Norpoth. With a wink, a nod and an arched eyebrow, Norpoth suggested to Varney that though media might try, outside sources don’t have much success in swaying voters to change their minds. After all, Norpoth reminded, “FOX was unable to stop the reelection of Obama in 2012,” even though Obama was no longer an unknown entity and voters knew precisely what Obama was about.
When Varney pointed out that Obama was doing more now than earlier and apt to do more to help Hillary, Norpoth shrugged off the notion Obama could help Hillary. He responded that after Hillary wins the nomination and becomes the first woman candidate, that alone won’t be enough to propel her to the presidency. “She didn’t do especially well with women voters against Obama in 2008 for the Democratic nomination, nor is she against Sanders in some states,” Norpoth said, adding, “and Obama is not all that popular now either.”
So there you go. According to Norpoth, Donald Trump has election 2016 in the bag. No matter how Trump’s rivals and critics plot and wail, “All the king’s horses and all the king’s men…” will be unable to put Election 2016 back together in their image again. Until then, pundits, critics, pollsters and rivals will do as rivals do — to no avail. If Norpoth’s model is correct, and it has no failures to date, Donald Trump will be elected president.