According to the polls, Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump will win his home state in the New York primary on Tuesday, April 19, 2016, by a landslide. A WNBC/WSJ/Marist poll released on Friday, April 15 and a CBS News poll released on Sunday, April 17, both give Trump a 33 percent lead over his competitor and rival Texas Senator Ted Cruz just days before the New Primary. With a major win Trump can assert his front-runner status and possibly prevent a contested convention. There are 95 delegates at stake in the primary.
According to WNBC/WSJ/Marist poll, Trump has 54 percent of Republican voter support in New York. In second place is Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 21 percent followed by Cruz with 18 percent. Cruz has done well in the Western states winning most contests and delegates up for grabs. However, his earlier remarks criticizing New York values is haunting him in the state and ruining his chance of garnering any delegates.
The CBS News poll is a bit reversed. Trump still has a commanding 54 percent support. However, Cruz is in second place with 21 percent followed by Kasich in third with 19 percent. Kasich, who only won his home state of Ohio, is banking on a good showing in the Eastern states to prove at a possible contested convention that he should be given a chance to the party’s compromise candidate.
ABC News political analyst Matt Dowd believes that if Trump wins a significant amount of New York’s primary he will be able to earn the nomination, and the necessary 1,237 delegates outright by June, the end of the primary season. Dowd said, “If he picks up north of 75 [delegates], he has a real path to 1,237.”
Trump could sweep the primary and win all the 95 delegates up for grabs if he wins the majority of the votes in each county. Then Trump could indeed go into the July GOP convention in Cleveland the clear nominee. A victory on all fronts for Trump especially after decrying the state convention nominating system, which he believes is unfair and takes away the vote from the people and giving it instead to party leaders and insiders.
Trump has other good news coming hours before the New York primary popular former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani endorsed the businessman on Tuesday morning, April 19. Speaking on CNN the former mayor said, “I’m Rudy Giuliani. I mean a lot in New York politics. I endorse Donald Trump. But I’m not part of the campaign.” Giuliani said he would vote for Trump in the primary and stressed, “He is the best choice for New York. He is the best choice for the country. He is the one who can beat Hillary Clinton.”
Trump is also leading nationally according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on Monday, April 18. Trump has 40 percent of Republican support, followed by Cruz with 35 percent while Kasich has 24 percent support. Trump has 10 points more than he did in the same poll in March.
According to the New York Times’ latest count, Trump has 755 delegates while, Cruz has 543 delegates, still a nearly 200-delegate deficit. John Kasich has 144 delegates after Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s 171 delegates; Rubio suspended his campaign in March. A GOP candidate needs 1237 delegates to clinch the nomination.