In the latest statewide poll from Wisconsin out from Emerson College, Texas Senator Ted Cruz has a one point advantage over businessman and 2016 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. This survey of 439 likely Wisconsin Republican primary voters places Cruz at 36% to Trump’s 35%, and Ohio Governor John Kasich trailing the field at 19%. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.6%.
Wisconsin’s Republican presidential preference primary will take place on Tuesday, April 5, 2016, and the race is quickly turning into the last stand for establishment Republicans who want to prevent Trump from collecting the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination outright, prior to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio this summer. The Wisconsin primary is a winner take all format, which means the winner of the election wins all 42 Wisconsin delegates.
At the present time, Trump leads in the race for the nomination with 739 delegates, followed by Cruz at 465, and Kasich in third place with 143 delegates. Because Trump has already passed the 50% mark necessary to win the nomination, he only needs to win 53% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. The present delegate totals reveal that Trump only needs 498 delegates to win. Cruz needs 772 delegates to win the nomination, which makes it close to being a mathematically impossible task for Cruz to achieve.
Let’s consider what the race is creating for Cruz. Because of the nature of many primaries, where delegates are awarded to a candidate based upon the percentage of votes, Cruz must win states by large margins just to catch up to Trump. At this point in the Republican presidential race, Cruz remains 274 delegates behind Trump, which will not be able to be made up in just a couple of primaries. It will take many big wins by Cruz to catch up Trump, and it seems that the hill may be just a little too high for Cruz to climb up it.
If Cruz had swept both Arizona and Utah this past Tuesday, he would be in a much better position for claiming that he has the organization and momentum to defeat Donald Trump. However, that did not happen. While Cruz won all of Utah’s 40 delegates,. Trump won all 52 delegates from Arizona putting Cruz farther back in second place by 12 more delegates.
With the gap between Cruz and Trump falling within the margin of error, both candidates are truly running neck and neck in the Badger State. Kasich appears to be pulling votes away from Cruz, whereas Trump’s support remains solid and steady. As in Arizona, the election is going to come down to which candidate can turn out more supporters than their competition. Let there be no doubt about it.