We are now a mere one episode away until the “Survivor: Cambodia” Finale episode on December 16, now that Wednesday night’s episode is behind us. Down to just seven players, it is definitely time to start considering who could be the person that has made the most of their second chance.
Don’t read this if you haven’t yet seen the most recent episode, as spoilers are to follow. Get caught up on Episode 12 here.
Jeremy. Spencer. Tasha. Kelley. Abi. Kimmi. Keith. Those are your Final Seven, ladies and gentleman. But let’s be frank: When Jeff Probst announces at challenges, “You have a one-in-eight shot!” or “You have a one-in-seven shot at winning Survivor!”, this isn’t all that accurate actually. If I were to challenge LeBron James to a game of one-on-one, Probst may say that we both have an “equal” one-in-two chance of winning, but there is so much more that goes into it than just the raw numbers (clearly, I would kick LeBron’s ass…). So while it may appear that the remaining players all have a “one-in-seven” shot at becoming the Sole Survivor, this in not true in reality. So who does it look like has the best chance at the million bucks?
Let’s clear the table, shall we? Abi, Kimmi and Keith have no shot at winning Survivor. Sorry y’all. Abi has been kept in the game all of this time for the specific reason that everybody knows she cannot win, as was brought up by Joe in tonight’s episode. And who doesn’t love Keith? While he is a likable guy, there is no way that a jury made up of real players like Fishbach, Ciera and Kass will ever allow a player like Keith to win it all.
Kimmi is a more interesting pick, but the reason I don’t feel she has any chance is due to perception. We have seen her type of game many times before, where a player makes it all the way to the end, but nobody is aware of how big a role she played, and she won’t be able to convince the jury otherwise. We just saw something similar last season with Mama C. The major difference is at least with Mama C, the audience saw her playing a strong strategic game. Kimmi has been shown in flashes, but hasn’t been shown as a dominant force in any phase of the game. But give her more props than you might want to at first: Kimmi has been right there along with pretty much every major decision. If her “all-girl alliance” works out for her and she sits at the end next to Abi and someone else, couldn’t she have a shot? I say that I don’t see that scenario happening, and sitting next to either Tasha or Kelley, Kimmi will find herself in Mama C territory.
So with those three out (in my humble opinion), we are left with Jeremy, Spencer, Tasha and Kelley…all worthy winners in my eyes. Kelley seems the most unlikely of the bunch to make the Final Three, despite still having an Idol in her possession. She has just been in the minority the whole time, and I think that, like Joe, she will start becoming the clear-and-present danger to the others the further the game goes along. Since it appears that Tasha has sided with the guys, Kelley will be the numero uno target if she doesn’t win Immunity. And playing her Idol may get her through one vote, but then what? She will need to pull a Wiglesworth and win out challenges in order to get to the end at this point…right? And I don’t see that happening. But what if it did? Wow, Kelley would be a tremendous winner, and I could see several jury members supporting her with winning votes.
But because she is unlikely, it may very well come down to Jeremy, Spencer and Tasha. Of the three, I think that Tasha has the largest mountain to climb in terms of swaying the jury. In other words, she seems to be the least liked of those three. This shouldn’t take away from her game, but something tells me Tasha hasn’t built the bonds needed to win. So is it possible, that the winner of Survivor: Cambodia may very well be Spencer or Jeremy?
Both have played amazing games, but I think that it is no argument to say that Spencer has had to work harder, dodging more bullets and getting a bit more creative along the way. Jeremy though, has played masterful. He’s had Idols and has really persuaded many key votes. I think that each of them would be crazy to take the other with them to the Final Three, so if they do end up going at one another, I think the advantage goes to Jeremy since he still has an Idol to play. But if Spencer can somehow reach Final Three AND take out Jeremy along the way? Just hand him the over-sized check now.
What are your thoughts? Who do you think will win Survivor this season? Who do you want to win? Any flaws in my assessments? Sound off in the comment section below!
Please check back (or subscribe at the top of this article), because you will not want to miss my exclusive one-on-one exit interview with Joe Anglim tomorrow (up by Thursday afternoon). So join me tomorrow and be back next week for another Episode Preview on Wednesday morning followed by another full Episode Recap and Analysis Wednesday night!
Be sure to check out one of my favorite Survivor sites as well, SurvivorFever.net.