A strong storm system, responsible for spawning a deadly tornado outbreak along the Gulf Coast last night, will move through the Ohio Valley today. While severe weather is not expected locally, heavy rain with some isolated thunder is. Heavy rain will be ongoing at the start of the day today meaning a very wet AM commute.
The rain will break up and become scattered after 10 a.m. today as a dry slot moves into the Tri-State. The center of the low pressure system will actually pass nearby Cincinnati early afternoon. With this being the center of converging air masses, more scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after the noon hour. Most of these will move north quickly but a few isolated thunder showers remain possible through the afternoon. There is a very marginal risk for severe weather well east of Cincinnati today but it is not expected in our area. Rainfall totals between one and two inches are likely. A Flood Watch is in effect because localized flooding is possible.
The temperature will rise to almost 60 degree around lunch time as warm air gets pulled northward into the low. Once it passes by, temperatures will tumble again. We will drop into the 40s by the evening commute and continue into the 30s later this evening. Moisture wrapping around the backside of the low pressure center will bring light to moderate rain back into the area this evening.
As the temperature continues to fall and colder air aloft gets pulled in, the rain will mix with and change over to snow. This is most likely to occur between 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. tonight. With the ground being warm and surface temperatures likely hovering between 32 and 35 degrees, significant accumulation is not expected. Some areas may see a light coating by early morning.
A few slick spots cannot be ruled out for the morning commute on Thursday since the snow showers will persist much of the night. But again, a warm ground and surface temperatures barely dropping to freezing should preclude any widespread issues.
We will continue to see the snow showers through much of the day on Thursday. It is not out of the question that some locations could see up to an inch of snow, but most areas will receive less than that.
Because the area of low pressure is so strong, winds will be very gusty today. Expect southerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph all day today. Winds will whip around to the northwest this evening and gust to between 30 and 40 mph tonight and all day Thursday. The strong winds will subside Thursday evening.
Friday will be cold with partly cloudy skies. Highs will barely reach the middle to upper 30s. Luckily, the winds of change will return quickly for the weekend. After bottoming out in the middle 20s Saturday morning, we should see afternoon highs back into the 50s under sunny skies. Sunday will be even better with highs in the 60s and sunshine once again. A slight chance for rain returns with somewhat cooler weather to start next week.