In the latest Quinnipiac College poll of New York State voters, Republican businessman and 2016 Republican candidate for president, Donald Trump, holds a commanding lead over his two rivals, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Ohio Governor John Kasich. From March 22-29, Quinnipiac surveyed 457 Republican likely voters and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.6%
The survey, released today, shows Trump with 56% support, folowed by Cruz at 20%, and Kasich running neck and neck with Cruz at 19%. Empire State voters are rallying around Trump, the native son, and the businessman whose name is easily spoken by New York Republicans.
In the survey, 4% said that they were undecided, while 23% of respondents who selected a candidate preference say that they could change their mind regarding the candidate they will support in the May 19, 2016 primary. With almost three weeks to go before the polls open for the New York state primary, Donald Trump’s lead is not being eroded by either Cruz or Kasich.
It appears that the tabloid scandals involving both Cruz and Trump have not only settled down to a dull roar at this point, these scandals have not changed, significantly, support for either candidate. Trump wins among all voting age groups with half the votes for the state, in the same way that Hillary Clinton is favored over Trump in New York state’s general election.
In a head to head matchup in New York State between Clinton and Trump, Clinton leads Trump by 20 percentage points, with Clinton receiving 53% to Trump’s 30%. Trump also fails to matchup to Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Sanders received 56% support from all across New York, while Trump only received 32%. In a hypothetical matchup between Ted Cruz versus Clinton, Clinton wins with 53% to Cruz at 32%. Matched up against Brenie Sanders, the outcome is even worse for Cruz, as Sanders received twice the support of Cruz, winning handily 56% to 28%.
Of all the candidates who performed best against the Democrats, Kasich seemed to have a bit of momentum, while still trailing both Clinton and Sanders. In a one on one matchup against Clinton, Hillary Clinton bests John Kasich with 46% support to Kassich’s 41% support. Kasich fairs less favorable against Bernie Sanders, as Sanders receives 47% support to Kasich’s 37%.
This poll provides some ammunition for John Kasich’s campaign, as he is consistently rating better against the Democrats consistently now in head to head matchups for the general election. While Donald Trump is set to win the New York primary in a landslide, neither Cruz nor Kasich appear to be able to catch up to Trump; at least in New York state, and in the short term. Moving the dial thirty percentage points is the task that lies before both Ted Cruz and John Kasich, and, to make it even more challenging, neither Cruz nor Kasich have the name recognition of Donald Trump in New York state.
At this point in time, Trump only needs to retain his voters between now and election day in order to seal the win. Trump has a solid 80% of his supporters who say they have made up their mind for the election, while only 17% of his supporters say they could change their mind before election day. That’s the biggest spread between firm supporters of Trump versus his two opponents.
If the election were held today, Trump wins going away; however the election is not today. Almost three weeks remain before primary election day, and anything could happen. From this perspective, we don’t think that Cruz or Sanders can catch up to Trump in New York state. While it’s always a possible scenario, in this election it is far more possible than probable that Cruz or Sanders can pick up enough voters in the interim to draw even with Trump, let alone defeat him in his home state. Cruz won big in his home state, and so did Kasich. Now, it’s Donald Trump’s turn to do the same. Should Trump manage to remain on message he should win New York state by a very wide margin.