The day has finally arrived – Oscar Sunday. Statues are being polished, spotlights are being adjusted, and red carpets are being unrolled, because this evening, February 28, 2016, the Academy Awards are returning for the 88th time. This year’s race seems as unpredictable as it is controversial, and viewers can expect an evening full or surprises, upsets, and likely a series of highly emotional acceptance speeches. So, take a look below at my predictions and feel free to let me know what you think. Also be sure to follow along as I live-tweet this evening’s awards on Twitter: @pghfilmcritic.
Best Picture
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
Room
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
The Revenant
Brooklyn
Spotlight
This is one of the most unpredictable “Best Picture” contests in years, and The Big Short, Spotlight, and The Revenant are all possible winners. The Big Short took home the PGA award, while Spotlight won the SAG award for best ensemble, and The Revenant won big at the DGA awards. Personally, I think The Big Short, was the most impressive in the group, and probably the most deserving film, but based on the momentum of The Revenant, I think it has the edge. Furthermore, I fully expect Alejandro González Iñárritu to once again win for “Best Director,” which should help The Revenant secure the win.
Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Although George Miller seemed like a potential winner early on, Iñárritu’s DGA win indicates that he will be the one taking home the golden statue this evening. His win would be the first time the Academy has ever given a director back-to-back Oscars for the director of the best picture.
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leo’s time has finally come. After a phenomenal performance in The Revenant and a big Golden Globes win, Leo seems like a sure thing.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Best actress seems like another lock. Brie Larson has been unstoppable this season, and her performance in “Room” was one of the best in years.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Stallone seems like the most likely choice for his unexpectedly brilliant performance in “Creed,” but he got ignored by SAG, which could lead to an upset. If either Ruffalo or Bale wins, it could be an indicator of a “Big Picture” upset as well.
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Expect Vikander to take this one. She gave a remarkable performance in “The Danish Girl,” and voters likely kept her “Ex Machina” performance in mind when filling out their ballots.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Drew Goddard, The Martian
Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short
Phyllis Nagy, Carol
Emma Donoghue, Room
As I mentioned above, “The Big Short” was the most impressive film of the year. McKay and Randolph managed to accomplish the seemingly impossible task of turning a complicated, dull business book into a funny, witty and captivating film. The other nominees deserve the recognition, but “The Big Short” should take this category easily enough.
Best Original Screenplay
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Ronnie del Carmen, Inside Out
Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus, Andrea Berloff, Straight Outta Compton
Although “Spotlight” won the WGA award and is a favorite, “Ex Machina” was extremely well received and featured one of the most original stories in recent memory. The big question here will be whether the Academy will be more influenced by the quality of the storytelling in “Spotlight” or the originality of “Ex Machina.”
Best Foreign Language Film
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Mustang (France)
A War (Denmark)
Embrace the Serpent (Colombia)
Theeb (Jordan)
Although this category is generally seen as an extra bathroom break by most, this year’s Best Foreign Language Film will be a close race between “Son of Saul” and “Mustang,” but expect “Son of Saul” to come away with the win. This was one of the best films of the year, and viewers should add it to their “must see” lists, even though it’s not a Hollywood production.
Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
“Amy” was one of the most impressive documentaries I’ve seen in a long time. I didn’t know much about Amy Winehouse before watching this powerful portrayal of her life, but expert storytelling, impressive editing and an emotionally-driven narrative made the documentary compelling and unforgettable.
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out
Anomalisa
Shaun the Sheep
When Marnie Was There
Boy and the World
“Inside Out” was another homerun for Pixar.
Best Film Editing
Hank Corwin, The Big Short
Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road
Stephen Mirrione, The Revenant
Tom McArdle, Spotlight
Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Although “The Big Short” could easily take this category, “Mad Max” had early buzz for a potential “Best Picture” win, and it was a masterfully made action film that will be seen as a gold standard in the genre for years to come.
Best Original Song
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3” from Youth
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
This is a tough category to predict. Although “Earned It” was by far the best song in the category, the Academy voters may choose to vote for another strong contender, like “Til It Happens to You” just to avoid endorsing “Fifty Shades” in any way.
Best Original Score
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Carter Burwell, Carol
Jóhann Jóhannsson, Sicario
John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
Although it seems almost sacrilegious not to give the award to a “Star Wars” movie scored by the legendary John Williams, he hasn’t won since the first film, and he’s going off a lengthy and impressive “Hateful Eight” score from Ennio Morricone.
Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Edward Lachman, Carol
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
Roger Deakins, Sicario
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
I expect Lubezki to make some shocking Oscar history this year by becoming the first cinematographer to win three Oscars in a row. His preceeding two wins, “Birdman” and “Gravity” were just as impressive as “The Revenant” so I expect him to take home yet another statue.
Best Costume Design
Sandy Powell, Carol
Sandy Powell, Cinderella
Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl
Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road
Jacqueline West, The Revenant
Although this category is nearly always a guaranteed win for a period piece, I think there’s a good chance “Mad Max” may pull away with the upset. Despite the extraordinary costuming of “Carol” and “The Danish Girl,” I’m hoping the Academy recognizes the originality of the “Mad Max” costumes. Beavan apparently made each now iconic design from scratch, which should help her take the category.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
This category is a toss-up between “Max” and “The Revenant,” but I think Max was far more difficult considering the fast pace of the film and the way the wind and sand had to be accounted for.
Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
The cars alone should drive “Mad Max” to a win in this category as well.
Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This could be a close race between “Max” and “Revenant,” but I think the “Revenant” will sneak away with the win. It seems unlikely “Max” will sweep this production category as well.
Sound Mixing
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
This category is quite similar to sound editing, though it focuses more on the soundtrack as a whole. I think it will go to “Revenant” as well for powerful consistency throughout the film.
Visual Effects
Ex-Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Despite the strength of “Star Wars,” I expect “Max” to roll away with one more category for its unbelievable practical effects.
This year’s race has plenty of close categories, so we’ll find out what happens tonight. Feel free to connect with me on Twitter as the race progresses!
