In a new poll out from CBS News and YouGov, a polling organization, the results reveal a campaign that is gaining momentum as we head towards tomorrow’s Wisconsin Republican primary election. Tomorrow, polls will be open from 7:00 AM until 8:00 PM all across Wisconsin. To learn more about voting in Wisconsin’s primary, please visit the My Vote Wisconsin website by clicking HERE.
In this latest poll it is Texas Senator Ted Cruz on top with 43%, Donald Trump second at 37%, and Ohio Governor John Kasich rounding out the field in third with 18%. These results show that Cruz has expanded his base of voters beyond just the born-again Christians in Wisconsin, and is appealing to all demographic groups chosen for the survey. For his part, Trump continues to have a strong grip on the middle-class and blue collar workers that dominate in Wisconsin.
Ohio Governor John Kasich is hoping to be more than just a spoiler. Kasich believes that if the national convention opens contested, he does have a chance to have his name placed into nomination by the delegates. Between now and April 19, 2016, when New Yorkers head to the polls, will tell us a great deal if the Kasich factor is having a direct impact on either Cruz or Trump. Kasich does not have any mathematical possibility to win the election unless no candidate can obtain the 1,237 delegates required to win the nomination, and the nomination is contested at the convention itself.
In reality, the polls have swung wildly the last three weeks, and few have placed the results outside of the margin of error. What that means in layman’s terms is that the race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz remains essentially a statistical tie. Whether or not Trump can pull off the upset remains to be seen. But many political ads from political action committees (PACs) have been playing in Wisconsin for weeks on end, and we’ve reach the market saturation point where people are tired of hearing possibilities, and just want to get their votes cast. While the good news is that the election is tomorrow and political ads will be winding down, they will soon reappear again as we get closer to the general election in November.
In looking around and observing the Wisconsin electorate, a large majority of voters say that the number one issue on their minds is the economy and jobs. These are the kinds of issues where Trump is strongest in; and this gives him an advantage in Wisconsin. While it is true that tomorrow’s election will be close, and it will take a long time to get the election results out, rest assured that the Government Accountability Board, or G.A.B. as it is affectionately known during election season, will be doing their very best to ensure a fair and honest election outcome.
Yes, this could be a close race, and officials might not be done counting votes until the wee hours of the morning. Now that we have taken a look at important issues in the Badger State for tomorrow, let’s consider how the delegates will be awarded.
Wisconsin is a winner take all state; which means that the winner of each of Wisconsin’s eight congressional district receives three delegates for each district he or she wins, 10 delegates are awarded to the winner of the state-wide vote, five delegates are selected from party members, and three state party officials will automatically become delegates to the national convention; makig it a total of 42 delegates up for grabs.
So while the state is supposed to be winner take all, the party members and leaders selected for the remaining eight delegates are awarded based upon the decision of the state Republican National Committee chair. The way that things have turned out in this election , very little would surprise us tomorrow night once the polls have closed. There will be one winner and one winner only. Now we will see who that winner will turn out to be.