Even with a full court press of volunteers and political action campaign moneys, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is not making much headway in New York State in the latest poll from Fox News. For Republican primary likely voters, 602 respondents answered in the survey, which was conducted from April 4-7, 2016 by a combined polling group including Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll contains a margin of error of +/- 4%
The poll asked if the Republican primary election were held today, who would you vote for? Percentages of respondents are listed below:
- Businessman Donald Trump – 54%
- Ohio Governor John Kasich – 22%
- Texas Senator Ted Cruz – 15%
Of all three Republican candidates, Donald Trump leads among all races, age groups, and income levels. No shocker here that John Kasich would be the party’s second choice in a contested convention, while Ted Cruz would draw little support from the New York delegation in the event of a brokered convention.
So far, whatever that Cruz has been doing in New York State, Cruz simply has no traction, and his bid for delegates in New York State, were the primary election held today, would mean that Cruz would pick up zero delegates; information that is finally some very good news for the Trump campaign. Where theRepublicans have some trouble is in the general election.
No Republican candidate, if the presidential election were to be held today, could win in New York State. Of all three Republican candidates, John Kasich comes in with the best support for the general election, but his strength was not tested for a head to head comparison for either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. In head to head contest between Clinton and Trump, Hillary Clinton would win by over ten points. The same results occur if Sanders is Trump’s opponent: Sanders would win by over ten points.
Were the presidential election held today, Ted Cruz would not match up well at all against either Clinton or Sanders; once again, the Democratic candidate will win in that matchup, this time by almost twenty percentage points. Based on this information, Republicans must unify their party or they will have no hope in the general election by the time we get to December.
That general election is still seven months away, but from the responses in this poll, it is not unresonable to say that Democrats are more unified than Republicans at this point in time. Albeit things could change, but would that change in strategy actually result in better results for the Republicans?
When you are losing by thirty points in a poll, that means it is very unlikely that you can make up that gap in just nine days. At this point in time, again, Trump is looking at another landslide election in his favor. He only needs to continue to win in the remaining states to win the Republican nomination for president; and that is looking more likely each and every day that passes.