In the latest survey of likely Republican presidential primary voters, conducted by Optimus, a Republican pollster, businessman and 2016 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump garners 49% of all respondents, followed by Ohio Governor John Kasich witb 24%, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz rounds out the field with 13%. This sampling was the largest that we have seen in New York State during the primary season as a total of 14,201 respondents answered the call, and were surveyed between April 11-14, 2016. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 1% overall.
The survey considered voters from all 27 of New York’s congressional districts, and what we learn about the statewide voting pattern is that Trump is in first place in every single congressional district, by an average margin of more than 20 percentage points. While the presidential preference voters who are committed to a candidate tells the bigger picture, we find that with 13% of all voters still undecided, however, those who would choose a named candidate after they step into the voting booth breaks again for Trump first, Kasich second, and Cruz third among those who said they remain undecided. A balanced 13% undecided figure for the total number of uncommitted voters still remains for those who intend to vote in the New York State Republican party presidential primary on Tuesday, April 19, 2016.
The survey shows strong support for Trump statewide, from Erie county to Pittsburgh, from Utica to Albany, and from Long Island into New York City, the electorate is excited about this election. Some of the information that we learn in this poll suggests that accusations that Trump is anti-Latino are completely unsupported when viewed through the lens of this poll. In this survey, almost 40% of all voters consider themselves to be Latino, and of those, 47% of all Latinos surveyed say that their choice is Trump. What we can conclude from this is the farther from the southern U.S. border that Trump gets, the stronger his support builds up from among the populace. Trump has said that he intends to win the Hispanic vote, and in New York State, that is exactly what he will do on Tuesday.
Then there is supposed to be a bias against Trump from women voters, but this survey does not bear that out. A full 47% of female respondents say they are voting Trump, while only a slightly larger number, 50% of male respondents say they will be casting their votes for Donald Trump. So actual raw statistics prove that there is neither a bias against Trump from women or Latino voters.
When it comes to the African-American vote, there are significantly more undecided voters than in any other ethnicity. Trump leads Kasich 29% to 27%, but there are more undecided Republican African-American voters than there are persons who have already chosen a candidate. 30% of all African-American Republicans remain undecided. While there are fewer African-American voters voting in the Republican primary, they are out there, and a plurality want Trump.
So, let’s cover the major points of this survey:
- In New York State, Trump has no gender gap.
- In New York State, Trump wins the Latino vote.
- In New York State, Trump wins statewide by 20 percentage points over his closest competitor.
- The only thing we do not know yet is if Trump will exceed 50% of the statewide vote, garnering him all 95 of New York’s delegates. This survey says that of the committed voters, Trump will barely come up short, but after factoring in the 13% who are undecided, 19% of those voters are selecting Trump now, and this should be enough to put Trump over the 50% mark on Election Day.
To read the full results of the survey click HERE. To read the Real Clear Politics polling averages, which average all public polling for Republicans in New York State, click HERE.
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