Two polls released this week show both former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New York real estate magnate Donald Trump holding their leads in Michigan ten days in advance of the state’s presidential primary on March 8. The polls indicate that Clinton and Trump appear likely to receive more than twice as many votes as their closest competition, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders for Clinton and Florida Senator Marco Rubio for Trump.
The Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit Poll released Thursday, February 25, surveyed both Democrats and Republicans. It showed that Clinton leads Sanders by thirty-four percent in the Michigan Democratic primary contest, sixty-five percent to thirty-one percent with only four percent undecided.
“Hillary Clinton continues to lead Bernie Sanders by a large margin after her victory in the Nevada Caucuses. She climbed 5% while Sanders gained 4% since our last survey. It is clear, Clinton is on the way to a huge victory in Michigan March 8th,”
Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said in a press release.
On the Republican side, Trump has maintained his double-digit lead over Rubio and the rest of the remaining field. Trailing Rubio are Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich, and neurosurgeon Ben Carson, formerly of Michigan, now from Florida.
“Trump’s percentage remains solid at 41%, while Rubio has moved back into second place in Michigan at 19%, still trailing by 22%. Cruz is close behind Rubio with 16% while Kasich still has not increased his share of the vote,” Mitchell said in a press release. “These data are almost identical to the positions of the top three candidates two weeks ago.”
The Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit Poll data are also almost identical to a Target Insyght poll conducted for MIRS News and released late Wednesday, February 24. It also showed Trump in the lead with forty-one percent and the rest of the Republican field trailing behind him in the same order of preference with Rubio at seventeen percent, Cruz at fourteen percent, Kasich at twelve percent, and Carson at eight percent. Kasich and Carson had eleven and seven percent, respectively, in the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit Poll.
“Cruz at 14 percent, Rubio at 17 percent, and our neighbor to the south Kasich jumped to 12 points,” Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght, said in a statement quoted by WHTC. “So, all this talk helps Donald Trump.”
That agreed with the conclusion Mitchell reached from his poll’s data. “Trump remains the real beneficiary of this three-way fight for second in Michigan. The longer the field is muddled up with three viable alternatives to Trump, the stronger Trump looks,” observed Mitchell in a press release.
Even if there were only one alternative to Trump, Mitchell thinks the former reality television star would likely still win the Michigan primary. “Trump continues to dominate in Michigan. The idea that a two-way race would lead to Trump losing in Michigan is wrong. Looking at second choices, even if it came down to a two-way race, Trump would still win Michigan,” he said in a press release.
Mitchell had a similar assessment of the Democratic contest. “Despite the loss in New Hampshire, Clinton remains very strong in Michigan. She has a 45% lead with women, and with African-Americans (84%-13%) and voters older than 70 (82%-16%), she has an enormous lead. Michigan should give Clinton a big win on her road to the nomination,” Mitchell concluded.